Archives

India likely to be treated sympathetically in new Congress

India Report by John E. Carbaugh, Jr.
February 14, 2003

A Washington-based consultant, John E. Carbaugh, Jr., who advises American corporations on trade and political issues, prepares an independent monthly report on political, trade and defense issues affecting India. His report dated February 14, 2003 which focuses on India and the new US Congress says that "India can expect to receive a largely sympathetic stance from the top foreign policy players on Capitol Hill, reflecting the broader U.S. effort to deepen ties with New Delhi".

India can expect to receive a largely sympathetic stance from the top foreign policy players on Capitol Hill, reflecting the broader U.S. effort to deepen ties with New Delhi.

With the new U.S. Congress underway after Republicans won control of the Senate and held onto the House of Representatives last November, and members’ assignments recently finalized, India will likely enjoy wide support, according to congressional sources. Congress will probably be in step with the Bush Administration’s ongoing effort to broaden bilateral relations.

The top congressional foreign policy hands are the new head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, veteran lawmaker Sen. Richard Lugar, and his House of Representatives counterpart Rep. Henry Hyde -- both of whom are open to stronger U.S.-India relations.

SOME SURPRISES

There are, nevertheless, some unknowns about how India will be treated. In a surprise move, the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee focusing on South Asia will be headed by Sen. Lincoln Chafee -- who has little experience dealing with issues in that part of the world.

The House International Relations Committee’s panel that dealt with South Asia has actually been abolished -- leading to some fears that India will be marginalized in foreign policy debates. However, a possible neglect of South Asian issues in the House is preferable to what could have been an alarming scenario for supporters of closer U.S.-India ties -- namely having noted India-basher Rep. Dan Burton running the South Asia panel.

SEN. LUGAR HOLDS INFLUENTIAL POST

Back in the Senate, U.S.-India policy watchers are optimistic that the recent momentum for closer bilateral relations will be given a further boost.

Indiana Republican Lugar, who took over as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last month, has already expressed his desire to visit India as soon as possible. Reportedly, in a meeting with Indian Ambassador Lalit Mansingh late last year, Lugar said he intended to visit India given the joint interests between Washington and New Delhi. Lugar apparently was enthusiastic about exploring ways to deepen the bilateral relationship, such as cooperation in the areas of defense and commerce, including high technology trade, space, and peaceful uses of nuclear energy.

LONG-TIME NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION CONCERNS

Some U.S.-India watchers are expressing slight unease that Lugar has made the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons one of his main interests, and as such has been somewhat critical of India’s move to acquire such weapons. Lugar has raised concerns about the safety of India’s -- and of course Pakistan’s -- nuclear program, and has called for better accounting and security of nuclear materials.

However, Lugar has also expressed optimism that the much-improved U.S.-India relations of the last couple of years can help aid and abet nuclear security. "The closer ties that have developed since September 11 with India and Pakistan offer new opportunities to discuss nuclear security with both countries, including safe storage and accountability," Lugar said in a speech which outlined the so-called "Lugar Doctrine" which places a premium on denying the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction to terrorists. "We must attempt to establish programs that respect their sovereignty and go far to help insure their security."

The non-proliferation problem is an issue that Lugar has dealt with extensively, stemming from 1991 legislation he co-authored with then-Sen. Sam Nunn, a Georgia Democrat, to secure stockpiles of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons in the former Soviet Union. Now Lugar says that such efforts must be expanded and put into practice on a much larger scale. He has suggested that he will seek to expand verification systems from former Soviet states to India and Pakistan.

Indeed, at the heart of the "Lugar Doctrine," the senator says the U.S. should use "all of its military, diplomatic and economic power, without question, to ensure that life-threatening weapons of mass destruction everywhere are counted, contained and hopefully destroyed."

A widely respected foreign policy observer, Lugar himself is certainly no novice when it comes to international affairs and has served on the Foreign Relations Committee since 1985. An immensely popular figure in his home state of Indiana, which first elected him to the Senate in 1976, Lugar made a brief run at the 1996 Republican Presidential nomination that was based to a large extent on his foreign policy expertise.

SURPRISE CHOICE OF SEN. CHAFEE TO HEAD SOUTH ASIA PANEL

Lugar had a difficult task in working with his colleagues to decide who would head the various Foreign Relations subcommittees, with a final decision having only been made in the last week. One surprise is that Sen. Lincoln Chafee will take the gavel of the Foreign Relations subcommittee that oversees South Asia policy.

The moderate Rhode Island Republican’s selection to helm the subcommittee on Near Eastern and South Asian affairs came as a surprise to some panel observers, who had long assumed that India expert Sen. Sam Brownback would head the panel.

However, a reshuffling of subcommittee memberships -- brought on by changes in seniority -- left Chafee with the choice to take the Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs panel, which will have a high-profile given the likely war with Iraq. "You look at the choices [of available gavels] and there is no more interesting place in the world," Chafee said. "This is too good to pass up."

Chafee is seen as a more liberal Republican -- and was actually the only Senate Republican to vote against last year’s resolution authorizing force against Iraq, and also has accused the White House of "bellicosity" on the issue.

However, Chafee has little experience in dealing with India and Pakistan -- although congressional sources say he would likely be open to the further deepening of U.S.-India relations.

INDIA-EXPERT BROWNBACK STILL ACTIVE

Brownback, a Kansas Republican, will be disappointed not to chair the South Asia panel, although he will still remain a member of the subcommittee.

Brownback will likely continue to take an active interest in U.S.-India relations. Indeed, he has already suggested that he will use the new Congress to possibly push for a U.S.-India free trade accord.

FREE TRADE ACCORD COULD BE PUSHED

Brownback suggests that the possibility of a free trade accord should be used as a carrot to help prompt India to carry out much-needed economic reforms. "I look forward to working on measures in the…Congress to provide incentives for India to take on these reforms -- including the possibility of a free trade agreement," said Brownback. "This will help America tap into a large new market as well as providing greater national security for our country. The two countries should start discussing a free trade agreement, which could form the basis of jump starting their economic relationship."

Brownback has raised concerns over the slow pace of Indian economic reforms -- which has been a disincentive to U.S. investment. Indeed, he is worried over the strategic, not just economic, consequences of U.S. investment going to China instead. "Of particular concern to me, as an American policymaker, is the fact that the rate of U.S. foreign investment in China is several times that of U.S. investment in India," Brownback said. "It makes little sense for long-term U.S. national security to see U.S. foreign investment go so unevenly divided in the region."

STRATEGIC INTERESTS BETTER SERVED

Brownback stressed that U.S. foreign policy goals would be much better served if more U.S. trade and investment went to India instead of China. "Especially in light of the incident with our downed plane and the difficulties we experienced with the Chinese military, we cannot forget that while China is opening up -- and should be encouraged to continue -- they are still a nation that does not share many of the values and principles of a free and democratic society," he said. "India is a much better ideological fit. But we will not see an increase in investment or trade with India until India decides it is willing to reform its highly bureaucratic red tape, recognize the sanctity of contracts, protect intellectual property, and bring down the high trade tariffs."

Aside from narrow commercial considerations, it is in India’s security interest to undergo economic reform, according to Brownback.

"American businesses will invest in the countries where such reforms are made. Without these steps, American businesses will not invest in India," Brownback said. "If China continues its pace of reforms and keeps on opening up its economy, American business will move in there. This in turn will only help building up the Chinese military -- a danger to both U.S. and India. It is a matter of not only money but also regional insecurity. It is India who will lose the benefit of a stronger economy, more jobs and increased trade -- not American businesses who can just easily locate other parts of the world.

"If American investment and trade ties do not improve, there will be more repercussions for India, than for the U.S. American strategic interests may be damaged by a stronger China," he added. "However, U.S. will always be able to defend itself against a potentially aggressive China."

PRESSURE ON INDIA

The bottom-line, however, is that no matter what incentives are offered, such as a free trade deal, how stern the warnings are given, and how much U.S. goading is dished out, the ball is in India’s court regarding its economic moves, Brownback stressed.

"India needs to decide on whether it wants to be broadly engaged with the U.S. or not," he said. "The ball is in India’s court. The U.S. and India are working closely together on anti-terrorism cooperation, intelligence sharing, and law enforcement. The one piece of our relationship that is not moving is trade."

Brownback recently visited India where he met with numerous officials -- including Prime Minister Vajpayee -- to discuss not only economic matters, but other issues in what he called the "the important burgeoning relationship between the U.S. and India."

He noted that "the U.S. and India have been cooperating militarily and strategically, and both are committed to winning the war on terrorism."

While Brownback is generally seen as a friend of India, he nevertheless warned New Delhi recently that it could face U.S. economic sanctions if it doesn’t make serious efforts to correct its record in domestic and international trafficking in humans, particularly young girls.

INDIA-BASHER REP. BURTON SIDELINED IN HOUSE

Over in the House of Representatives, Rep. Henry Hyde continues to head the International Relations Committee. The conservative Republican from Illinois is not considered an expert on South Asia, but is still seen as supportive of improved U.S. ties with India.

Hyde, however, perhaps did India a huge favor by helping prevent India-critic Rep. Dan Burton from taking over the chairmanship of the South Asia subcommittee. Seniority would have dictated that Burton, an Indiana Republican, should have assumed the gavel of the South Asia panel.

However, partly to prevent Burton from winning control of the South Asia subcommittee, Hyde reorganized the subcommittee structure, including eliminating the South Asia panel altogether.

INDIA TO BE DEALT WITH BY REP. LEACH

That region will now fall under the auspices of the Asia and Pacific Subcommittee, controlled by Rep. James Leach, a moderate Republican from Iowa.

India might not get the same sort of prominence in the wider East Asia subcommittee, but it is preferable to Burton using the now-defunct South Asia panel to voice his anti-Indian and pro-Pakistani views, according to allies of New Delhi on Capitol Hill.

CONGRESSIONAL CAUCUS ON INDIA

Elsewhere, the Congressional Caucus on India and Indian-Americans hopes to continue to increase its influence under the new joint-chairmanship of Rep. Joseph Crowly, a New York Democrat, and Rep. Joe Wilson, a South Carolina Republican. The caucus is likely to highlight the confluence of strategic and economic interests between the U.S. and India, which it sees as natural allies. In particular, the caucus is likely to push for expanded trade and investment ties -- a part of the bilateral relationship that still lags.

"The United States and India have convergent economic interests," Crowley said last month. "Recently, American companies have shown greater interest in India. There is great potential in U.S.-India trade. India is one of the fastest growing emerging markets in the world, one that presents opportunities for the export of U.S. goods and services, especially in the infrastructure field. Numerous American companies play an important role in India’s booming high technology sector.

"The U.S. and India have cooperated in fighting terrorist threats to both countries," Crowley added. "The common bond of democracy and the rule of law have enhanced this cooperation. India is a strategically important country, and a force of stability in South Asia."

Wilson noted the potential for India to become a strategic partner. "India is the world’s largest democracy and is rapidly becoming a reliable American ally in South Asia," he said recently. "The U.S. and India formed a Counter-terrorism Joint Working Group in November 1999, and members of both governments are working together to coordinate counter-terrorism strategies. India’s armed forces are the world's third largest, and both the American and Indian military have begun a strategic partnership. Last year, the American and Indian Navies conducted joint military exercises in the Indian Ocean, the special forces of both armies conducted military exercises in Alaska, and Paratroopers from the American and Indian Armies conducted exercises in India. As a Colonel in the Army National Guard and member of the House Armed Services Committee, I want to see the U.S. develop a deeper military relationship with the people of India, as they are a crucial ally in the war on terrorism."

REP. PALLONE STILL A STAUNCH ALLY

The Congressional Caucus on India was jointly founded in 1993 by Frank Pallone, a New Jersey Democrat, who will likely still be one the leading advocates of closer U.S.-India ties in the current U.S. Congress.

Pallone has described India as a U.S. strategic partner, and has pointed to the recent enhanced defense cooperation as an indication of the new era in bilateral ties.

Pallone has also highlighted the joint concern over China being a major basis for a strategic U.S.-India partnership. "I would like to see India and the U.S. form a stable defense alliance," Pallone said. "Such an alliance would help secure our national security and those of our allies while isolating nations such as China, which pose a threat to India and other Asian democracies. In fact, India and the United States have many similar democratic interests, and as a result, both countries could work together and work together well against the threat from a military buildup in China or from rogue nations in Asia that threaten American interests."

Pallone has also recently called for the reimposition of U.S. sanctions on Pakistan due the alleged transfer of nuclear technology by Islamabad to North Korea.

PELOSI A LIKELY ALLY

House Speaker Dennis Hastert, an Illinois Republican, will continue his low-key, largely hands-off approach to foreign affairs, including U.S.-India relations. However, new House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, who succeeded Richard Gephardt as head of the Democrats in the House, could prove a valuable ally to India, congressional sources say.

Liberal Pelosi is thought to be highly supportive of India, representing a San Francisco district that includes many Indian-Americans. Pelosi has also been a long-time fierce critic of China.