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U.S.-India-Japan strategic triangle is a possibility in Asia

India Report by John E. Carbaugh, Jr.
March 19, 2003

There appears to be growing potential for a triangular partnership between the U.S., India and Japan.

Not too long ago there was chatter of a potential India-China-Russia trilateral axis to counter a dominant U.S. However, in the post-September 11 world, such an idea has been displaced by talk of more realistic increased cooperation between the U.S., India and Japan.

The world’s two largest economies have long had a critical trading partnership, while in recent years India has expanded its economic ties with both the U.S. and Japan. The U.S.-Japan security alliance has also long been credited as the linchpin for peace and prosperity in Asia, while the last couple of years have seen major advances toward a U.S.-India strategic alliance, as well as some new security cooperation between the India and Japan. Binding a potential U.S.-India-Japan partnership together are shared security concerns, most notably over a rising China.

U.S. LOOKING FOR RELIABLE ALLIES

Informed sources in Washington say that the U.S. would certainly welcome a trilateral axis, informal or not, with India and Japan -- two nations that are proving to be reliable allies at a time when U.S. ties with many other nations are under strain over Iraq.

"As President George W. Bush has articulated a new strategic vision for American national security, it is clear that our alliance structure is not what it used to be, nor what it needs to be. French and German reluctance to cooperate with us on Iraq is merely the latest evidence that it is time to reevaluate who we consider our friends," said Thomas Donnelly of the American Enterprise Institute.

UN SECURITY COUNCIL PLACE FOR INDIA AND JAPAN?

Indeed, with the U.S. undertaking a quiet rethinking of its alliances, there is increased chatter in Washington about India and Japan becoming permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.

"As soon as the dust settles in Iraq, we should push for an expansion of the Security Council -- with India and Japan as new permanent members -- to dilute France’s disproportionate and anachronistic influence," suggested conservative commentator Charles Krauthammer.

More broadly, Krauthammer said that U.S. should start laying the foundations for a new alliance structure -- including with India and Japan -- to replace the obsolete current system. "Its nucleus should be the ‘coalition of the willing’ now forming around us … You have the makings of a new post-9/11 structure involving like-minded states that see the world of the 21st century as we do: threatened above all by the conjunction of terrorism, rogue states and weapons of mass destruction."

INDIA GROWS IN STATURE IN U.S. EYES

Sources in Washington say that India’s value to the U.S. as an ally has become increasingly apparent since the September 11 terrorist attacks.

"President George Bush entered office determined to positively recast relations with Delhi," noted Frank Gaffney, the head of the Center for Security Policy in Washington. "And since the September 11 attacks against the U.S. by Osama Bin Laden, U.S.-Indian cooperation has accelerated in the countering of terrorism, and in building cooperation between their respective military services. For the first time since Indian independence from Britain in 1947, there is a sense that the world’s two largest democracies can cooperate for their greater security."

The U.S. and India are making major strides in boosting their relationship, which some observers contend is developing into a strategic alliance. Indeed, Donnelly has described India as "perhaps the most alluring partner for the United States in the coming century."

BILATERAL DEFENSE TIES

This improvement in ties has been seen by the deepening bilateral defense relationship -- which would have been unheard of not too long ago. It was recently announced that the U.S. and Indian militaries are planning to conduct their first joint exercise with fighter aircraft, further intensifying the joint defense ties. Other productive joint exercise in the last year included Indian paratroopers working with their U.S. counterparts in Alaska, a U.S. Air Force C-130 cargo aircraft flew to the big Indian air base near Agra for an exercise in military airlift operations, and the Indian and U.S. navies conducting a number of exercises that included anti-submarine training, and combating piracy. More recently, American and Indian military personnel took part in the Shanti Path 03 peace-keeping exercises in India along with a host of other nations.

The U.S. and India have also begun tentative cooperation on missile defense. "There are many in Washington who believe American interests are better served by allowing and even enabling India to achieve a level of missile defense that meets its military and budgetary requirements," said Richard Fisher of the Jamestown Foundation.

At the same time as this military cooperation, defense trade between the U.S. and India also appears to be taking off. Since President Bush lifted the nuclear sanctions in 2001, U.S. military sales to India "jumped from near zero" to more than $190 million today, according to the U.S. Ambassador to India Robert Blackwill.

Related to this, an Indo-U.S. high technology cooperation group was set up recently to improve exchange on dual use technology, civilian nuclear and space issues -- an area that has long been troublesome in bilateral ties. U.S. Government sources say that the group -- which is the first of its kind that the U.S. has created with any trade partner -- should be viewed for its importance in the strategic relations between the U.S. and India.

FOUNDATIONS FOR ALLIANCE IN PLACE

Blackwill said that the progress in the last couple of years has laid-down the foundations for a long-term alliance. "The U.S. and India have given historic impulse to our efforts at building a close relationship in all fields of bilateral interaction, including diplomatic collaboration, counter terrorism, counter proliferation, defense and military-to-military teamwork, intelligence exchange, and law enforcement," he said. "In my view, these supportive relations between America and India will endure over the long run most importantly because of the convergence of their democratic values and vital national interests. Indeed, I am confident that historians will look back and regard the transformation of U.S.-India relations as one of the most important strategic developments of the first decade of this new century."

STRONGER U.S. RELATIONS WITH JAPAN

At the same time, U.S. relations with Japan have never been stronger, one informed Washington insider said. The acrimonious trade disputes of the past -- which poisoned the overall relationship -- are a distant memory. Instead, Japan today is seen as one of the U.S.’s most reliable allies.

Japan currently appears increasingly willing to pursue a more assertive security policy, which has largely been applauded in Washington. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has recently pushed the boundaries of his nation’s ‘pacifist’ constitution, offering up unprecedented assistance in the U.S. war on terrorism, being increasingly supportive of Washington’s hard-line stance with Saddam Hussein, and showing more willingness to work closely with the U.S. on missile defense.

"Japan is steadily moving to join the ranks of ‘normal’ nations, reassessing its restrictions on its own defense forces and paving the way for the admission that Japan not only needs, but in reality already has, a true military," one U.S. analyst said.

Koizumi has worked toward revising Japan’s interpretation of the constitution, particularly Article 9, which prohibits the use of force to resolve international disputes and denies Japan the right of collective security. The war on terrorism and now Iraq has given Koizumi the opportunity to push such a shift in Japan’s thinking.

INDIA-JAPAN TIES SEE IMPROVEMENT

The third side of the triangle, improved India-Japan ties, is also apparent. Relations between the two nations have warmed especially since Japan lifted its nuclear-test sanctions on India in 2001.

In July of that year, the first India-Japan Comprehensive Security Dialogue was held in Tokyo to discuss respective security and defense policies, the regional security environment, and disarmament and nonproliferation.

Another important event was the visit of former Prime Minister Mori to India in October 2001 as a special envoy of Koizumi, which was then followed by Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee’s December 2001 trip to Japan -- only the second Indian head of government to visit Japan in a decade.

Notably, the two countries have been involved in joint naval cooperation. Japan participated in the International Fleet Review held in February 2001 at Mumbai and a Japanese training squadron of the Maritime Self-Defense Forces visited Chennai in May 2001, while India’s Navy participated in the Japanese International Fleet Review in Tokyo in October 2002. Some of this of the naval cooperation involved combating piracy and terrorism, especially in the heavily traversed Straits of Malacca.

Ashok Kapur at the University of Waterloo in Ontario, Canada noted that for many years, the Japanese frame of reference in strategic matters only went up to Burma. However, after the 1998 nuclear tests and the September 11 terrorist attacks, "Japan started looking at India on the strategic side quite differently," Kapur pointed out. "India is now part of the Japanese strategic horizon."

SHARED CONCERNS OVER CHINA

One common strategic concern between the U.S., India and Japan is a rising China.

There are "compelling common interests" brought on by strategic changes in Asia, especially regarding a rising China, according to India expert and former State Department official Lloyd Richardson. U.S. foreign policy players see India as a counterweight to China’s growing regional power. India would also like to see China’s power checked, given the traditional Indo-China competition and animosity. China’s strategy in Asia is partly designed to "surround" India, according to Richardson.

EVIDENCE OF ENCIRCLEMENT

Long-time China watcher William C. Triplett, II, agrees that China has a long-term plan "of military, political and economic domination of South Asia," which involves helping smaller neighboring states surround India.

"In late December 2002, China and Bangladesh signed a ‘Defense Cooperation Agreement’ which covers at least military training and defense production," pointed out Triplett, a former senior staffer on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "The relationship between Burma and China can be characterized as something between a client state and a satellite, not unlike that which Moscow had with Eastern Europe during the Soviet days. Burma has granted the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) basing rights at its islands in the Andaman Sea, where it can spy on Indian space launch activities. Sri Lanka’s Army, Navy and Air Force also are at least partially equipped by Beijing, including armored personnel carriers, missile boats and fighter jets.

"This arrangement also includes training and parts supplies, and provides the Chinese with opportunities to influence local military officers. China also seems to have a higher level of physical presence in the Indian Ocean’s various island nations than would be warranted by the levels of trade and other economic activity. In recent years there has been a big upswing in military exchanges between Beijing and those African nations having coastlines on the Indian Ocean. For example, in November of 2002 the PLA donated about $2 million to the Mozambique Army in the form of trucks, boots, clothing and other supplies. The same thin-edge-of-the-wedge tactics are being used up and down the east coast of Africa."

BEIJING’S TIES WITH ISLAMABAD

Of course, Indo-China relations are also strained because of Beijing’s support for Islamabad. "India continues to regard China-Pakistan relations as a major security problem," noted Satu Limaye of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies.

China’s help in the 1980s and 1990s was thought to be critical to Pakistan’s emergence as a nuclear weapons state. However, it is believed that China is still using third-party conduits to provide further help to Pakistan, notably via North Korea.

"China is actively involved in the arming of Pakistan with nuclear ballistic missiles, just as China is working very hard to surround India with its military power and military influence," said Fisher. "India’s concern over China’s growing military power is completely justified. Pakistan’s nuclear ballistic missiles are Chinese. Their technology is entirely Chinese. They have agreed to arm Pakistan and that is a threat not to just India, it is a threat to the whole world. Now, Pakistan has participated in secondary proliferation of Chinese nuclear technology to North Korea. In turn North Korea has exported missile technology which is also based on Chinese technology. China stands as an author of proliferation to two world states."

Indeed, Islamabad’s entire strategic weapons system -- fissile materials, weaponization and missile delivery system -- could in fact be stamped "Made in China," according to Triplett, who also noted that Beijing is investing over $2 billion in a naval base at Gwadar on the Arabian Sea (near Karachi), which, within a decade, could become another nuclear submarine or even aircraft carrier homeport.

MILITARY RAILROAD COULD THREATEN INDIA

Further evidence of China’s intensions toward India is seen by Beijing’s effort to build the final leg of a military railroad across the Tibet Plateau, Triplett noted. "The railroad will open previously unrealized strategic, tactical and conventional possibilities for the PLA to direct military firepower toward South Asia and beyond," he speculated. "With this railroad in place the PLA will have excellent hiding places for its new rail-mobile ICBM, the DF-31A. If the PLA follows the Russian lead and rail-bases its ICBMs, each missile train could carry up to thirty nuclear warheads capable of destroying any strategic target in Japan and many in the Western United States. In eastern China, it is the PLA’s practice to move its theater ballistic missiles, the DF 11 and the DF 15, by rail to staging areas prior to dispersal to pre-surveyed launch sites.

"The Tibet Plateau Railroad will give the PLA the opportunity to threaten India with theater ballistic missiles in the same way it now threatens Taiwan. From a military logistics standpoint, rail has an enormous advantage over roads in moving heavy equipment, supplies and manpower. In effect, this means the permanent militarization of the entire plateau into a staging ground for aggression into South Asia. With even a single line, the PLA could move about 12 infantry divisions to Central Tibet in 30 days to meet up with their pre-positioned equipment. In short, Beijing’s new rail line into Tibet represents an enormous political and military challenge to India."

Overall, Triplett concludes, "Beijing has a Grand Design for political, military and economic dominance over peoples and territories extending from the Sea of Japan to the Arabian Sea. And those who are not dominant, of course, are destined to become subservient."

ECONOMIC TIES SEE IMPROVEMENT

As well as strategic concerns and cooperation, there is increased evidence of deepening economic ties between the U.S. and India, and India and Japan.

The U.S. and Japan -- the world’s two largest economies -- have long had critical trade and investment ties. But the U.S. is now also looking to boost its commercial relationship with India.

Economic ties are currently seen as the weakest link in the deepening U.S.-India relationship. "This modernization of U.S.-India economic interaction based on Indian economic reform is the missing piece in our transforming bilateral relationship," Blackwill said

The U.S. sees India’s problematic economy not only in terms of impeding bilateral trade and investment, but also as a wider strategic concern. India’s economy is holding back the South Asian power from fulfilling its potential as a major player on the international stage, Washington argues. The U.S. also says it is crucial for the developing bilateral strategic ties that commercial relations be expanded -- a move that requires India to undertake critical economic reforms.

"America’s strategic interests would be significantly served if India -- through a new wave of economic reforms -- climbs firmly aboard the globalizing train," Blackwill said. "Put simply, the United States has major strategic stakes in India’s economic success. An India that takes full advantage of its extraordinary human capital to boost its economy would be a more effective strategic partner of the U.S. over the next decades, including in promoting peace, stability and freedom in Asia," Blackwill added. "An India that enters into a full fledged series of second generation domestic economic reforms would inevitably play an increasingly influential role in international affairs across the board, and that too would be beneficial for the United States."

However, there is some evidence that India is getting this message -- with the carrot of a free trade agreement with the U.S. possibly being offered. Bilateral trade last year actually grew substantially, reflecting a cautious optimism over the prospects of a more meaningful U.S. commercial relationship with India. Indian exports to the U.S. rose by 21.4 percent in 2002 to $11.82 billion, the highest in past decade, while American exports to Indian grew by 9.1 percent.

Of particular note, trade ties in the high-technology, defense, and other sensitive areas are showing signs of life following the Bush Administration’s move to lift most of the nuclear test sanctions on India.

Similarly, although India-Japan trade and investment ties are still limited, bilateral commercial relations have also improved since Japan lifted its nuclear sanctions on India, noted Limaye. Indeed, Vajpayee’s first stop during his groundbreaking 2001 visit to Japan was Osaka, not Tokyo, "signaling the economic rather than political focus of the trip," Limaye added.