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Maturing U.S.-India Ties Experience Some Growing Pains

India Report by John E. Carbaugh, Jr.
June 24, 2003

The maturing U.S.-India relationship appears to be experiencing some growing pains, with each nation looking to the other for new signs of a deeper commitment.

U.S. officials are going out of their way to reassure their Indian counterparts that the U.S. future in South Asia lies with expanding relations with India, not with Pakistan. However, Washington is also looking to New Delhi to provide some new impetus to solidify U.S.-India ties -- with some U.S. officials noting that an Indian peacekeeping presence in Iraq would certainly go a long way to boosting relations.

CONCERNS OVER U.S. FRIENDSHIP WITH PAKISTAN

The Bush Administration has made clear India’s long-term importance to the U.S. as a strategic partner. However, as President George W. Bush gives Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf the rare honor of being the first South Asian leader to be feted at Camp David, there is some concern -- both in India and in the U.S. foreign policy community -- that the U.S. has been too sympathetic toward Pakistan, including over Kashmir, as it works with Islamabad in the war against Al Qaeda.

According to Selig Harrison, director of the Asia program at the Center for International Policy, Washington’s recent policy has rankled India and thus threatened the U.S.’s balancing act in the region.

"Since Sept. 11, the Bush Administration has engaged in a delicate balancing act in South Asia. It has embraced Pakistan’s military ruler, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, as an ally against Al Qaeda. At the same time, it has worked to prevent its Islamabad connection from damaging continuing efforts to improve a potentially more important relationship with democratic India," Harrison noted. "Until recently, the administration had succeeded in maintaining good relations with both Islamabad and New Delhi. But three new developments threaten the balance. The U.S. has tilted toward the Pakistani position in its policy toward the conflict in Kashmir; it has expressed discomfort with India’s growing ties with Iran; and it has disappointed New Delhi by maintaining restrictions on the sale of military hardware and industrial high technology to India."

Former Indian Ambassador to the U.S. Shankar Bajpai, writing in the American journal Foreign Affairs, also noted India’s frustration over U.S. ties with Pakistan. "As one of the world’s longest-suffering victims of terrorism, India had high hopes for the U.S.-led campaign against global terrorists that emerged in the wake of the September 11 attacks. But well into the second year of this war, and despite full support for U.S. actions, India finds itself harder put to counter the violence inflicted on it. At the same time, the source of that violence, Pakistan, seems better placed to get away with it. This bizarre situation arises from the importance of Pakistan to the ongoing effort to secure Afghanistan."

CONDITIONS FOR AID TO PAKISTAN

The Bush Administration certainly sees Pakistan as playing a critical role in Afghanistan. Sources say, however, that the U.S. has an updated wish list where Pakistan is concerned -- including winning an agreement to cease cross-border operations in Afghanistan as well as into Indian-controlled Kashmir.

"Although there is some evidence that the Pakistani government has supported militant groups that cross the borders into Afghanistan and Kashmir, Washington wants Islamabad’s cooperation in surveillance and shutting down the border crossings," one U.S. analyst said. "To that end, officials may request some leeway in U.S. military operations: U.S. troops operating in Afghanistan have been unable to chase militant suspects across the border into Pakistan -- and although it would be unpopular to publicly grant them permission to do so, Musharraf could accede to U.S. wishes, provided operations were conducted quietly and perhaps clandestinely. Such a move would be worth at least $1.8 billion for Pakistan, and Washington likely would have little trouble granting that request. For the United States, the money would be a safe investment: Not only is Washington highly unlikely to collect the debt, given the state of Pakistan’s economy, but it also would stand to strengthen Musharraf politically -- particularly by helping to appease the middle class -- which indirectly would benefit the Bush Administration."

However, Harrison stressed that any new economic and military aid commitment to Pakistan should be conditioned on termination of Pakistani support for Islamic militants’ infiltration into Indian-held areas of Kashmir. "An unconditional commitment to Musharraf would give hard-line, anti-U.S. Hindu nationalists a new lease on life in India. It would also directly conflict with the administration’s view that India, eight times larger than Pakistan, is a ‘growing world power with which we have common strategic interests.’

"To sustain the improvement in Indo-U.S. relations since the end of the Cold War, the administration should insist that Pakistan dismantle all its base camps as a condition for new aid; stop badgering New Delhi to curtail its economically vital links with Iran; and loosen restrictions that are sharply limiting U.S. -- and U.S.-licensed -- sales of military hardware and high technology to India," Harrison said.

U.S. TRIES TO ALLAY CONCERNS

However, informed Washington insiders dispute such assertions that the U.S. has recently tilted too much toward Pakistan, putting its ties with India in jeopardy.

Nevertheless, U.S. officials are definitely trying to allay these concerns.

PRODUCTIVE ADVANI VISIT

This was no more apparent when Bush went out of his way to meet with India’s Deputy Prime Minister Lal Krishna Advani earlier this month. Bush "dropped by" Advani’s meeting with National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice at the White House, which, sources, say, essentially turned into an extended Bush-Advani discussion on a range of subjects, including the India-Pakistan peace initiatives, cross-border terrorism, defense ties, and India’s contribution to peacekeeping operations in Iraq.

During the trip, Advani also held extended talks with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Attorney-General John Ashcroft, and met with Vice President Dick Cheney.

U.S. LOOKS TO INDIA FOR MORE, INCLUDING TROOPS

However, at the same time as India is looking for signs from the U.S. that it is seen as Washington’s main ally in South Asia, the U.S. is putting India’s commitment to its alliance with the U.S. to the test over the question of providing Indian troops for the current post-war stabilizing role in Iraq.

Although U.S. officials stress that the troop question is certainly not a make-or-break issue in U.S.-India ties -- the relationship is now too mature to fall part over a single issue -- they nevertheless acknowledge that a positive decision from New Delhi would elevate relations to a new level.

SENDING TROOPS TO IRAQ COULD HELP INDIA

Sources say that to help convince India to send troops to Iraq, the U.S. is quietly dangling the carrot of Iraqi reconstruction contracts for Indian firms.

U.S. officials also suggest that India could also strengthen its hand in the broader Gulf area, where it has critical strategic interests.

However, more importantly in the longer-term, U.S. officials say that Washington would see New Delhi as a closer ally in the global fight against terrorism if it commits the troops, and would help reinforce India’s role as a growing world power.

TIES IN GOOD SHAPE, AS SEEN IN DEFENSE AREA

Despite the current growing pains, U.S.-India ties are in good shape -- spurred on by what Condoleezza Rice said are the two democracies’ shared values.

One of the leading indicators of the current strength of ties is the flourishing defense relationship, according to Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs Peter Rodman.

The two countries have conducted numerous joint military exercises in the last couple of years. Military sales have also taken off. India has achieved the same status as other major allies, like Japan and South Korea, concerning military sales. Congressional review is now only required for items costing more than $14 million.

"There have been significant milestones in the interaction of the Indian and the U.S. militaries," said Rodman.

Some observers say the U.S. and India are soon expected to set further milestones in their military ties, with new exercises planned, and the U.S. more willing to sell India advanced military equipment. The U.S. is moving to sell India new detection and protective equipment used in bio-chemical warfare, and has lifted curbs on spares for Sea King helicopters. The U.S. also sold India firefinder weapon-locating radar, and gave the OK for the sale of Israeli Phalcon radars to India despite major reservations from Pakistan.

India is in negotiations with the U.S. for the sale of P-3C Orion maritime reconnaissance aircraft, which are seen as important to boost the long-range surveillance capabilities of the Navy, and is also seeking the U.S.-made Patriot anti-missile system and the upgraded Arrow air defense system which is manufactured by the Israel in collaboration with the U.S.

The annual meeting of the joint Indo-US Defense Policy Group is also set for August.

There is also increasing evidence that the U.S. would ideally like to establish access to military bases in India.

Currently the Pentagon is undertaking a major review of the future of U.S. bases in Asia in order to have more flexibility in responding to regional crises and to deal with terrorism.

WIDER SECURITY PARTNERSHIP

Indeed, more broadly, the U.S. is looking to incorporate the deeper military ties into the broader security alliance with India. There is even some talk of the U.S. and India anchoring an "Asian NATO" made up of Asian-Pacific democracies.

SHARED CONCERNS OVER CHINA

Although the Pentagon is rethinking its strategies to deal with modern threats such as terrorism, U.S. officials are still concerned over the more traditional geo-political problems in the region, notably a rising China.

Indeed, shared concern over China is viewed as an essential ingredient in the growth of deeper ties between Washington and New Delhi. A recent Pentagon report actually concluded that the U.S. and India should forge a long-term security alliance partly aimed at containing China.

"China represents the most significant threat to both countries’ security in the future as an economic and military competitor," said the Pentagon report. U.S. and Indian views of China are "strikingly similar," it added.

The last decade has seen growing concerns in U.S. policy circles over the threat from China, fueled by China’s rapid military modernization. Similarly, China’s military improvement and its more expansive diplomatic outlook have increased concerns over the danger to India from "encirclement."

"The U.S. sees India as a counterweight to China in the Asian balance of power and as a de facto naval ally in the Indian Ocean," Harrison said.

ECONOMIC RELATIONS

Deepening security ties have been the stand-out feature of the evolving U.S.-India relationship in the last few years. Economic ties, in contrast, have been seen as lagging, with the U.S. especially complaining that India was dragging its feet over carrying out economic reforms -- with comparisons to reform in China often unfavorable.

However, some observers say that despite such griping, India has transformed itself into a modern economy that can match its foreign policy ambitions.

"Almost unnoticed by the outside world, India over the past two decades has witnessed an economic transformation of staggering proportions," contends Bruce Gilley of Princeton University. "It is a transformation that has cut poverty to 20 percent of the population today from something like 40 percent a few decades earlier (estimates vary), while adding nine years to the life of the average Indian. Low inflation, strong foreign-exchange reserves and healthy agriculture and services sectors underlie the changes. The information technology sector continues to boom despite the global IT bust, now accounting for 3 percent of GDP and 15 percent of exports. There is no vast underclass of disaffected farmers and workers threatening to overturn the reforms, or even the political system, as there is in China. Indeed, the BJP-led coalition includes many of the parties that represent those groups.

"India’s reforms are not just an economic issue," Gilley notes. "The country is forging a proudly democratic model of economic reforms. It is the kind of model that many developing countries, despairing that they do not have the dictatorship of China to force through difficult reforms, can hope to emulate."

PAINS SEEN AS INEVITABLE IN CHANGING RELATIONSHIP

Overall, despite growing pains in the U.S.-India relationship, level-headed observers in both nations say that problems are inevitable. However, they stress that the relationship is mature enough to overcome individual problems.

Advani said that during his discussions with U.S. officials, he got the feeling that Indo-American relations are now on a different plane altogether, not tied to any specific issue.

"It is not an alliance of convenience," said Advani. "It is a principled relationship between the world’s biggest democracies, the largest and the strongest. It is proceeding very satisfactorily in that direction. India is happy at the kind of relationship that is developing between our two countries, which is fully reflected in the security strategy document published in the name of the president last year."

"Profound changes are taking place in India-U.S. ties," another Indian observer said recently. "Unprecedented level of confidence, warmth, and fealty between two sides that have had a hard time being on the same wavelength for half a century. Short of declaring a formal alliance, the two countries have now signaled their intent to work together in a global and regional architecture that accepts American pre-eminence but recognizes India’s own sphere of influence and independent line of action without jeopardizing the interests of either country."

Similarly, Assistant Secretary of Defense Rodman said recently that "Indo-U.S. relations are advancing in unprecedented ways ... India and the U.S. are drawing closer not only bilaterally but also regionally and globally."

Despite acknowledged differences, Rodman added, "the two countries are agreed that they must work together to promote stability in Asia and fight terrorism."

Although for many years U.S. ties with India were regarded as one-half of the India-Pakistan-U.S. relationship, Rodman insisted "that is certainly not the case now."

The U.S. now has a broader strategic view of India’s significance not only in the region but in the world, Rodman said. "The U.S. views India in its own right as a fellow democracy and a strategically significant power, with growing weight in the global economy and in the international system."